Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
